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Birmingham & Sub-Regional Economy Technical Report 2002

This Technical report has been prepared by the BEIC to inform the City Strategic Partnership and Birmingham's Economic Strategy. In addition to extending the geography of this report to embrace the wider Birmingham & Solihull sub-region, we have also instigated two further innovations in the opposite direction:

For the first time we make use of lifestyle data to drill down to sub-ward level and highlight the diversity of conditions in the local economy. We illustrate this diversity using maps developed on our new Cartology GIS system.

In the third chapter, we look forward and assess the future prospects for local areas within the sub-region. This is the first time we have ever presented economic forecasts for employment and unemployment at ward level.

Structure and Content

The Technical Report adopts a global to local approach and is divided into three broad chapters:

West Midlands Regional Economic Prospects

This chapter sets out the economic conditions and prospects for the West Midlands region, so that our subsequent analysis of the Birmingham & Solihull sub-regional economy can be properly understood. The chapter has 4 sections:

• Regional Economic Context: explores how the West Midlands region currently compares with the other English regions, based on a set of key economic indicators.
• Medium and Longer Term Prospects: is devoted to growth and employment forecasts for the English regions to 2010, highlighting the performance of the West Midlands.
• Key Industrial Clusters: we consider the prospects for 10 priority industrial clusters and highlight Birmingham & Solihull's exposure to these industries.
• Interventions in the West Midlands Region: introduces a number of key initiatives, which are aimed at promoting regeneration and boosting future competitiveness and growth.

Birmingham & Sub-Regional Economic Prospects

In this, the second chapter of the Technical Report, we set out the broader economic conditions and strategic prospects facing both Birmingham as regional capital, and the larger Birmingham & Solihull sub-regional economy. The chapter has 4 sections:

• Sub-Regional Economic Context, explores how the Birmingham and Solihull economies compare with the other urban areas of the West Midland County, based on a set of key economic indicator.
• Short Term Prospects for the Birmingham & Solihull Sub-Regional Economy, uses trended survey data to examine the relative performance of the Birmingham and Solihull sub-regional economy compared to the Region and the UK.
• Factors Influencing Future Growth Prospects, focuses primarily on Birmingham, which accounts for 84% of employment in the combined Birmingham & Solihull sub-region. In particular, we identify the real progress Birmingham has made in modernising its economy and highlight a range of inter-linked factors, which will influence future growth prospects. We also focus on some of the key messages for the wider Sub-regional economy, including Solihull's contribution to Sub-regional growth in a range of high technology and Service sectors.
• The fourth part of the chapter, Medium and Longer Term Prospects for the Birmingham & Solihull Sub-Regional Economy, presents our economic forecasts for both Birmingham and the Birmingham & Solihull sub-regional economy to 2015. This section includes both base forecasts and our customised forecasts which incorporate the impact of major development projects, particularly in the period to 2005.

Local Areas: Prospects within the Sub-Regional Economy

In this final chapter of the Technical Report we look at local areas within the Birmingham & Solihull sub-region. The Sub-region contains a diverse range of neighbourhoods with some of the most deprived areas of the country nestled alongside areas of wealth. Although ward level data picks up on some of this variation (for example distinguishing between the affluence of Sutton and the deprivation of Aston) it cannot highlight the contrasts within wards. Even in an affluent area such as Sutton there are pockets of deprivation that are masked by official statistics. This final Chapter is divided into 3 sections:

• Socio-Economic Diversity of the Sub-Region: we make use of lifestyle data to drill down to sub-ward level and highlight the diversity of conditions in the Birmingham & Solihull sub-region.
• Socio-Economic Prospects within the Sub-Region, we look forward and assess the future prospects for local areas within the Sub-region. We present prospects for employment and unemployment at ward level.
• Finally, Political/Institutional Factors Influencing Prospects in the Sub-Region. In the first chapter of this Review we introduced a number of European, national and regional initiatives aimed at tackling deprivation and in this final sub-section we look at where these will operate in the Sub-region.